The graph below compares quarterly housing starts and new home sales (you can see a larger image on the CR blog). Through much of 2005 and 2006, new home starts were higher than sales and inventories rose sharply; then, the bottom fell out in 2007, and starts have been consistently below sales. As Calculated Risk notes, it appears to be a race to the bottom…
I see that as well, but I see a bit more. I also see inventories beginning to drop off slightly, which is a good thing. There are too many houses sitting in inventory at the moment, and it is imperative that we work this excess down in order to stabilize housing prices and induce demand for new homes. There has never been a better time to buy a home, provided you can qualify for the loan and manage to keep your job.
It will get better, it just won't happen overnight. But maybe that's just me – I’ve always been a glass half-full kind of guy…
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