Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Clintons To Make Ball Drop
But seriously, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has announced that Bill and Hillary Clinton will push the ceremonial button signaling the Times Square Ball to descend at 11:59pm on New Year's Eve.
Insert your own Clinton jokes here.
Blago Ups The Ante
Through his appointment, Blagojevich appears to be daring US Senate Democrats to make good on their pledge not to seat any candidate the governor named. And with the appointment of an African American, Blagojevich all but ensured the efforts to remove Burris or prevent him from serving would be tinged along racial lines. Check and mate.
Blagojevich's moves also signal that he does not intend to go down without a fight, much to the chagrin of Barack Obama I'm sure. And despite President-elect Obama's attempts to widen the distance between them, the fact remains that the president-elect and Blagojevich are close; Obama even active in Blagojevich’s campaign bid for Governor. This is another in a line of examples of Obama’s penchant for forging relationships of convenience rather than character.
Why do I get the feeling that Obama has more of these types of skeletons waiting in the closet?
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Worst. Video. Ever.
It doesn't really get going until 3:22 into the song, and the line dance finale is a riot. I couldn't make up my mind which video was worse - this or Billy Squier's "Rock Me Tonight". I'll let you make that call.
I promise from here on out to only use my video imbedding powers for good.
UPDATE: Yay! It worked!
Will I Still Get July 4th Off?
A Russian professor envisions something fairly similar, but his work is entirely non-fiction. Professor Igor (or is it I-gor?) Panarin predicts the US will fall apart by the end of 2010. Panarin has maintained for several years now that economic and moral collapse will trigger civil unrest that will culminate in the breakup of the United States into six geographic regions – several western states headed by California will fall under Chinese influence; the states of the Texas Republic will be under Mexican control (naturally); the mid-Atlantic states will join the European Union; Canada will gobble up Northern border states; Hawaii will become a Japanese protectorate and Alaska will be dominated by the Russians.
While a fascinating theory, I’m not converting my dollars into euros just yet (I happen to live smack dab in the middle of Atlantic America). But I’m sure some Hollywood hack is busy at this very moment putting Panarin’s ideas to script for a Summer 2010 release starring Will Smith.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Because She’s, Um, You Know, A Kennedy…
“I'm really coming into this as somebody who isn't, you know (emphasis mine), part of the system, who obviously, you know, stands for the values of, you know, the Democratic Party," Kennedy-Schlossberg told reporters. "I know how important it is to, you know, to be my own person. And, you know, and that would be obviously true with my relationship with the mayor.”
This is the product of years of private tutelage and finishing schools? And people criticize Bush for his grammar mangling despite an Ivy League pedigree. Perhaps I’m being too hard on Mrs. Kennedy-Schlossberg. After all, the left was entirely accommodating of Sarah Palin’s Wasilla-by-way-of-Fargo accent and limited national exposure. And I would hope that the press will hold Mrs. Kennedy-Schlossberg to the same standard as Palin when they invade every facet of her private life and voting record (or lack thereof).
I didn’t wholeheartedly support Palin in the general election, but I’d choose that soccer mom over the Kennedy-Schlossberg model anytime.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
The Press Hearts Obama: Exhibit #1,642
For this, I am often accused by my liberal friends as being a sore loser. Perhaps. But after seeing dripping love notes like this in the Philadelphia Inquirer this morning, I'm beginning to reconsider. Stories like this seem to be all too commonplace in major newspapers lately, and belong more on the pages of Tiger Beat than the Inquirer.
It should be quite a show when the relationship turns acrimonious.
And it will.
WaMess
“We hope to do to this industry what Wal-Mart did to theirs, Starbucks did to theirs, Costco did to theirs and Lowe’s-Home Depot did to their industry. And I think if we’ve done our job, five years from now you’re not going to call us a bank.”
They’re not calling WaMu much of anything, anymore Mr. Killinger. Apparently, WaMu had a problem with saying “No” to prospective loan applicants. In one case profiled by the Times, the applicant claimed a six-figure salary for a profession not used to such extravagant wages: a mariachi singer. The loan officer could not verify the applicant’s salary, but did manage to take a picture of the singer dressed in his mariachi outfit in front of his home. Approved.
But we wouldn’t be in this mess now if WaMu was the lone example. In his book, Behind the Housing Crash, author Aaron Clarey details an industry where loan practices like the one described above were the norm. Clarey should know – he was an analyst for several banks in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area from 1998-2007. Alarmed at the growing number of defaults and lax lending standards, Clarey sought to warn his employers of an impending crisis. His efforts were ignored, and he left the industry altogether in protest before the bubble burst.
Although I’m only a third of the way through it, Behind the Housing Crash is an interesting, albeit depressing read from a person who experienced the downfall of an industry from the inside.
Harry In The Crosshairs
While I dislike Reid and would welcome the news of his unemployment, I just don’t see it happening. For one, Obama carried the state rather handily in November, despite Nevada going Bush in 2000 and 2004. For another, the economy should start to show signs of life by November 2010 no thanks to Harry, but a situation for which he and his campaign will undoubtedly take credit.
However, should the economy not start to pick up by then, then Harry and several other of his Democrat colleagues will have a lot of splainin’ to do.
Bonita And Clyde
She's a baaaaaaad girl.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
The Winds Of War
Pakistan has signaled to India that it does not want war, but will defend itself if attacked. This statement comes in response to increased pressure from India and the United States for Pakistan to hand over members of the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist cell suspected in organizing the bloody three day siege in Mumbai last November.
Meanwhile, over in the Middle East, Israeli war planes and attack helicopters raided Hamas strongholds in Gaza, killing or wounding at least 150 people. The Israeli strike comes after Palestinian rocket attacks over the past few weeks have strained a shaky truce in the region. Arab reaction was not surprising - Egypt condemned the attacks and held Israel responsible for the killed and wounded, and called on Israel to restore the truce with Hamas. Strangely enough, the Egyptians did not call on Hamas to make similar gestures after a rocket fired by Palestinian militants in Gaza prior to the Israeli attack apparently misfired and struck a house in the strip, killing two Palestinian girls aged five and 13.
Happy New Year.
Krauthammer’s Zero Sum Game
Why propose such a politically unpopular move at a time when the consumer is getting pummeled, and current lower gas prices are actually acting as an artificial tax cut? Krauthammer argues that, while never a perfect time to impose such a tax, doing so now at a time of precipitously falling oil prices would further encourage Americans to consume less gas, keeping global prices low.
To offset the adverse impact on consumers, Krauthammer suggests a net-zero gas tax. Theoretically, he argues, this could be achieved through a swap that couples the federal gas tax with an equal payroll tax deduction. This would satisfy the objective of lowering consumption without burdening the consumer.
The wild card in all of this is the effect of such a manipulation of an already shifting demand curve on global markets. Currently, government expenditures from Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) are higher than the price of a barrel of oil without the gas tax ($38 per barrel compared to $50 per barrel in government spending). Let’s also add the Russians to the mix, as that country just recently devalued the ruble for the third time in a week last week as declining petrol revenues drag that country deeper into economic recession.
His idea has some merit, but its ultimate success is predicated on other factors, and should be viewed within the context that such a policy move would have on global markets. Nevertheless, it is an interesting proposition and one that is worth a read.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Raising Kane
To know my friend is to know that conveying this news did not come easily to him. He and I have been friends since high school, and I have always known him to keep his emotions close to his vest. He’s part Vulcan I think. We were roommates during my single years – my Felix Unger to his Oscar Madison. And when I met Mrs. Goldwater, he decided to move on to a new phase of his bachelorhood by moving into the Big City with a new wing man – a Weimaraner puppy named Kane.
Hearing my friend relay the final days of his dog’s life, and the agonizing decision on his part to end his friend’s suffering was to see him in an entirely new light. The solitary, skirt chasing cad I knew in my twenties was replaced by an older, wiser man coming to terms with the loss of a friend – but nevertheless looking ahead to the future in the joy and promise that relationships can bring. It’s funny how a dog (or pets in general) can often help to bring out the best in who we are.
Why do we keep doing it – putting ourselves out there like that on the likelihood that heartbreak and sadness may be the ultimate outcome? I guess it’s like what Woody Allen’s character says at the end of Annie Hall – because we need the eggs.
Here’s to Kane – thank you for watching over my friend all of these years. I wish you an eternity of arthritic squirrels, fragrant butts and stationary legs.
Sleep well.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Yes, Virginia, There Is A Santa Claus
DEAR EDITOR: I am 8 years old. Some of my little friends say there is no Santa Claus. Papa says, 'If you see it in THE SUN it's so.' Please tell me the truth; is there a Santa Claus?
VIRGINIA O'HANLON. 115 WEST NINETY-FIFTH STREET.
VIRGINIA, your little friends are wrong. They have been affected by the skepticism of a skeptical age. They do not believe except [what] they see. They think that nothing can be which is not comprehensible by their little minds. All minds, Virginia, whether they be men's or children's, are little. In this great universe of ours man is a mere insect, an ant, in his intellect, as compared with the boundless world about him, as measured by the intelligence capable of grasping the whole of truth and knowledge.
Yes, VIRGINIA, there is a Santa Claus. He exists as certainly as love and generosity and devotion exist, and you know that they abound and give to your life its highest beauty and joy. Alas! how dreary would be the world if there were no Santa Claus. It would be as dreary as if there were no VIRGINIAS. There would be no childlike faith then, no poetry, no romance to make tolerable this existence. We should have no enjoyment, except in sense and sight. The eternal light with which childhood fills the world would be extinguished.
Not believe in Santa Claus! You might as well not believe in fairies! You might get your papa to hire men to watch in all the chimneys on Christmas Eve to catch Santa Claus, but even if they did not see Santa Claus coming down, what would that prove? Nobody sees Santa Claus, but that is no sign that there is no Santa Claus. The most real things in the world are those that neither children nor men can see. Did you ever see fairies dancing on the lawn? Of course not, but that's no proof that they are not there. Nobody can conceive or imagine all the wonders there are unseen and unseeable in the world.
You may tear apart the baby's rattle and see what makes the noise inside, but there is a veil covering the unseen world which not the strongest man, nor even the united strength of all the strongest men that ever lived, could tear apart. Only faith, fancy, poetry, love, romance, can push aside that curtain and view and picture the supernal beauty and glory beyond. Is it all real? Ah, VIRGINIA, in all this world there is nothing else real and abiding.
No Santa Claus! Thank God! he lives, and he lives forever. A thousand years from now, Virginia, nay, ten times ten thousand years from now, he will continue to make glad the heart of childhood.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
My Christmas Wish List
President Bush – A fair legacy. If last Sunday’s attack piece in the New York Times is any indication, the MSM and academia will not be kind to the soon-to-be former president. George W. Bush entered his presidency amid controversy and derision, and finds himself leaving office under this same cloud. But nestled between these bookends is a record of remarkable achievements in both domestic and foreign policy when viewed under the circumstances. Granted, he has made several missteps over the years, and decisions which I could simply not buy into, but these should be judged as part of his entire presidency. Bush will not go down in history as the greatest president, but he certainly won’t be the worst either.
President-elect Obama – Humility. I truly admire and respect what Barack Obama has managed to accomplish at this stage of his life, considering the challenges and setbacks he faced during his formative years. He has also managed to ignite a flicker of hope within the hearts of many Americans who have become weary of seven years of war on two fronts and a sputtering economy at home. But let’s make no mistake – Barack Obama is no idealist; he is an opportunist in the classic mold of the worst of Chicago-style politics. He has also come to believe in the deified image created for him by his handlers and lapped up by an electorate starving for a savior. A mighty load of expectations has been placed upon his shoulders, much of it brought on by his own doing. I hope he possesses the humility of his predecessor in his approach to governance, and awe for the office with which the people have entrusted him. Unfortunately here, he has no discernible record upon which to judge. I’m pulling for him to succeed, because if he does, we all do.
Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi – A lump of coal. They deserve coal not only because they are the worst congressional leaders since the Reconstruction, but also as a symbol that America’s energy independence will be gained only through a pragmatic policy of exploration and utilization of all of our country’s natural resources including coal; solar power; natural gas; oil and nuclear energy.
Christopher Dodd and Barney Frank – An unemployment check. These two clowns fiddled while Fannie and Freddie burned, and then promptly held everyone but themselves accountable for the mess. They deserve to find themselves on the same unemployment lines they indirectly helped to create for many others.
The Republican Party – A set of Blago-sized cojones. Yes, they got creamed in the elections, but that doesn’t mean they have to like it. It should be a mother lode of source material for the Republicans over the next two years, between the Democrat brain trust listed above and their kid-in-a-candy-store mentality on spending. The Republicans need to get out ahead on the ideological battle on common-ground issues such as spending, defense, and energy and health care policy. Reflexive criticizing will only deepen the chasm with the electorate – they need to put practical and bold ideas before an American public who will be considerably lighter in their wallets in 2010 after two years of Obamanomics. If the Republicans can’t get their act together by then, they’re toast (as are we).
The American People – A healthy dose of context. Yes, here comes my “we live in the greatest country in the world” finish. Because we do. And because we do, we tend to overlook our shortcomings or pay too much heed to those countries which overlook theirs when criticizing ours. We have problems to be sure, but none insurmountable. The reports of the death of the American Experience have been greatly exaggerated. We’ll come out of this, and it is my hope that we’ll all be a little wiser about the things that truly matter when we do. So cheer up, it could be worse…you could be living in the Sudan. Or North Korea. Or Iran. Or even Canada.
Merry Christmas.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Obama More Popular Than Jesus (And Better Looking, Too)
The Politico is reporting that President-elect Obama's aides are planning to release a report this week absolving Rahm Emanuel of any wrongdoing in the recent imBlaglio (I've copyrighted that) involving Obama's vacant Senate seat. The article also says that Obama held off on releasing the report at the request of federal prosecutors. Nothing like waiting until all of the facts are in and indictments are dry before absolving anyone of sins, is there?
Obama's aides are also reporting that Obama is planning on making the blind see and the lame walk on his way up the inaugural parade route on January 20th as a sign of his compassionate mercy.
Pride comes before the fall...
2009 Prognostications
Dear Postcardigans,
As we head into the final days of the Holiday Season, I wanted to take a moment to wish you all a Merry Christmas, and give you a heads up that posting may be a bit sporadic over the next few days as the Goldwaters await the arrival of St. Nick.
I also want to let you know how much fun I’ve had over the last month in writing Postcards, and hope you’ve enjoyed visiting from time to time. Please continue to stop by and keep me honest.
Now with all that out of the way, what would a blog worth its salt be without 2009 predictions? So, I’ve listed out a few of mine, and hope that you will contribute yours as well. And now, without further ado, here are my prognostications for the New Year – these are for entertainment purposes only, so please no wagering:
- There will be an international crisis involving North and South Korea, perhaps with even limited military exchange (NK will conduct small armed incursions into the South), with China playing a major conflict resolution role;
- Joe Biden will say something so incredibly stupid that it will require a public rebuke by President Obama;
- At least one Supreme Court Justice will retire – Obama’s first choice will not pass Senate muster, requiring a hastily chosen, and more moderate replacement;
- Governor Paterson will not appoint Caroline Kennedy to Hillary Clinton’s vacant Senate seat; however, a Kennedy will be appointed to fill the seat of the departing Edward Kennedy (I realize the latter is a bit ghoulish, but hey, let’s be real);
- The economy will continue to languish, although not at the harrowing pace hoped for by the MSM – growth will not be detectable, which is to say that growth will be an “L” rather than a “V” curve into 2010;
- The New York Giants will repeat as Super Bowl champions;
- Hollywood will be the next industry to come to Congress hat-in-hand for a bailout as box office receipts continue to plummet;
- An oil deposit larger than the best expectations for ANWR will be discovered off of the US coast in the Atlantic, touching off a furor between the “Drill Here, Drill Now” crowd and environmentalists; and,
- I will turn 41.
Hopefully (or not), at least one of these will come to pass.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
The Oil Dividend, Part II
When you think about it, it makes sense. The price of gasoline has decreased dramatically from summer highs. The average price for unleaded gasoline in my area (Southeastern Delaware County, PA) is under $1.90/gal.; off from highs of $4.00+ in July. Additionally, car dealerships are practically giving SUVs and pickups away to deplete inventory and prepare production (well, for Ford at least) for more fuel efficient vehicles. This ramp up in production of fuel efficient cars was a response to consumer demand for compact vehicles in the wake of - you guessed it - higher gasoline prices.
While lower gas prices are a welcome respite to a seeming endless stream of bad economic news, they are surely temporary - a benefit of a decreasing demand. The question remains where the Obama Administration will come down on the position of increasing supply through offshore drilling and ANWR exploration once this demand curve recovers.
When High Karate Won't Do It...
When they introduce a scent that makes a middle-aged married man smell like he just took out the garbage, cleaned the dishes and put the seat up without being told, then we're on to something.
Awwwww yeeeeahhhh......
Thanks For Setting Me Straight, NYT
Perhaps my objections have more to do with the story’s overall tone, and how the authors seek to lay the blame for our country’s current economic woes solely at the feet of Bush. A sampling of their objective pursuit of this truth:
“Bush did foresee the danger posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage finance giants. The president spent years pushing a recalcitrant Congress to toughen regulation of the companies, but was unwilling to compromise when his former Treasury secretary wanted to cut a deal. And the regulator Bush chose to oversee them – an old prep school buddy (emphasis mine) – pronounced the companies sound even as they headed toward insolvency.”
Our economic blood loss is due to the cuts of several knives – the Bush Administration, Congress, the financial sector, Wall Street regulators and last but certainly not least the short-sightedness of an over-extended and overly consumptive American public. You can play with the comparative negligence percentages all you want, but the cold truth is that everyone is to blame here. And, when this turbulence subsides and we resume growth (and we will), none of the usual suspects listed here can rightly take sole credit.
But mostly, I just reject the Times' reflex to kick a guy when he’s down.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
On Congressional Pay Raises
I hate to come off sounding like a populist demagogue, but the hypocrisy demonstrated here is classic – these condescending clowns tut-tutted the Detroit CEOs for using corporate jets to fly to congressional hearings, but think nothing of receiving a 2.8% automatic pay raise on an average salary of $169,300 a year while the economy is tanking. Yes, I realize it’s a cost of living adjustment – but it’s the symbolism in a town built on symbols.
Hey Joe, where’s the “shared sacrifice” you preached to Americans during the campaign? Why not lead by example and freeze or decline congressional pay raises until the economic crisis has subsided? Sarah Palin did.
And they wonder why the American public loathes them.
Friday, December 19, 2008
It Could Be Worse…It Could Have Been Rev. Sharpton
Obama defended his decision, but added that his views were “absolutely contrary” to Warren’s on gay rights and abortion, and described himself as a “fierce advocate for equality for gay and lesbian Americans.” Conveniently, Obama stops short on this position when it comes to how he actually defines marriage. On this, he is on record as stating that he personally believes that “marriage is between a man and a woman.”
But this is essentially the position Warren takes. Warren says that he has no problem with gays and lesbians seeking equal protection under the law; it is that he is against the government seeking to redefine a religious covenant that has existed between a man and a woman for thousands of years.
My point here is not to debate how marriage should be defined (that’s a post for another day), it is that Obama and Warren’s views are not “absolutely contrary” – they are in fact very similar.
And as to why gay advocacy groups have specifically targeted Warren, it is largely because he has come to symbolize everything the Left detests of the “Religious Right” – the same folks they feel sent Prop 8 down in flames. But if they really wanted to marshal dissent against the forces of the Prop 8 crowd, then why haven’t they picketed Baptist churches or the NAACP in California? For of the black voters in California who turned out in droves for Obama, over 70% voted for Proposition 8.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Chet's Nuts Roasting On An Open Fire
A town in Western Sweden has decided to tackle that country’s problems of an aging population and the environment at the same time by connecting the local crematorium to its district heating system. Cemetery administrator Lennart Andersson explains that the idea came to the town fathers after an environmental review of the crematorium concluded new ovens would be required to conform to regulations. “After all this talk about the environment we realized we should take advantage of the heat created during cremation,” he said.
And there you have it.
Admittedly this item is not particularly newsworthy, but I couldn’t pass up the headline.
And The Winner Is...Russia
But Russia’s recent decision to “give” Lebanon 10 MiG-29 fighter jets, its Navy’s recent joint maneuvers with Venezuela and its invasion of Georgia last summer would seem to catapult the Kremlin to the head of the pack. These developments, combined with Russia’s dwindling petrol dollar wealth in the wake of plummeting oil prices, point to Putin playing the part of the mustachioed villain on the world stage.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Time Waits For No Man (But Obama)
The "Person of the Year" is....wait for it...Barack Obama...cue The Imperial March.
And you thought it might be something abstract like Planet Earth or The Economy.
The Fed Throws A Hail Mary
This action alone wasn’t the cause of the market’s euphoria, as the Fed also came out with a more aggressive statement on its position to get directly involved in current market events through what it calls “quantitative easing”. Essentially, this means that the Fed will inject more money into the supply by buying up government bonds and other assets of banks – sort of what Paulson originally intended for TARP until that entity became Paulson & Co.’s personal funny money for Wall Street lap dances.
I applaud their effort even if I’m not fully convinced it will ultimately do much good. You can inject all the money in the world into the economy, but until investors and consumers are assured the worst has passed (and many aren’t) they will continue to sit on the sidelines. The Obama administration could go a long way to restoring economic confidence by injecting its proposed stimulus plan with real, impacting corporate and personal income tax reductions rather than largely symbolic public spending projects. Obama has surrounded himself with some very bright economic minds - I hope (there’s that word) they will advocate the same.
To say the Fed’s actions yesterday were gutsy would be an understatement. Paulson and Bernanke are like Butch and Sundance holed up in a one-room shack while the economy encircles them like the Bolivian army – they appear to be outgunned, and are quickly running out of ammunition.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
JoePa To Stay On At PSU Through 2011
No wonder he keeps signing contract extensions, they appear to be keeping him alive. Actually, I suspect he died in 1994, and they just carry out one of those cardboard cutouts onto the field every Saturday. They don't grow 'em too bright in Happy Valley.
I'm just kidding, Mrs. Goldwater.
Oh Thaaaaat Conversation...
But don't worry, Obama's got it covered.
These aren't the droids you're looking for....you can go about your business...move along.
The New Normal
"We use the abstract expression “deleveraging” to describe what’s happening in the economy right now. That’s fine for a textbook or a newspaper article. But what’s really happening is that people are learning that the world is not as benign as many people in America talked themselves into believing it to be. Most middle class Americans are going to drive older cars, live in worse houses, and travel less than they thought they would even a couple of years ago. They will be less able to afford to move to the school district that they think will put their kids into the school that they think best for them. They are going to retire later, and have less money to spend when they do. This is painful and dispiriting. It is unequally shared suffering, and much of the distribution of relative pain is driven by luck, which makes it especially bitter to those who have been unlucky."
Read the rest here.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Um, Obama…Better Get To Work On That Lowering The Sea Level Thing
“When Bill Clinton took office in 1993, global warming was a slow-moving environmental problem that was easy to ignore. Now it is a ticking time bomb that President-elect Barack Obama can't avoid.”
Ouch. But wait, it gets better. He writes of anxious scientists (nothing worse than those), worrying more and more about “tipping points.” Scientists fear (apparently fear is as good as the scientific method anymore) that the Arctic ice melt will be amplified, and they predict that the Arctic waters will be ice-free in a matter of summers, perhaps by 2013.
“We’re out of time”, says Stanford biologist Terry Root. “Things are going extinct.” Interestingly, I found this article on the heels of another article reporting the discovery of over 1,000 new species in the Greater Mekong. Apparently, no one bothered to tell the hot-pink spiny millipede that his time was up.
And what of the pesky detail that 2008 has been one of the coolest on record? While “skeptics” like myself might say that this might be pause for further examination, Borenstein says it actually illustrates how fast the world is warming – I kid you not.
Like the song says, "Facts all come with points of view. Facts don’t do what I want them to…"
Silver Lining In The Housing Market?
The graph below compares quarterly housing starts and new home sales (you can see a larger image on the CR blog). Through much of 2005 and 2006, new home starts were higher than sales and inventories rose sharply; then, the bottom fell out in 2007, and starts have been consistently below sales. As Calculated Risk notes, it appears to be a race to the bottom…
I see that as well, but I see a bit more. I also see inventories beginning to drop off slightly, which is a good thing. There are too many houses sitting in inventory at the moment, and it is imperative that we work this excess down in order to stabilize housing prices and induce demand for new homes. There has never been a better time to buy a home, provided you can qualify for the loan and manage to keep your job.
It will get better, it just won't happen overnight. But maybe that's just me – I’ve always been a glass half-full kind of guy…
Detroit, Save Thyself
I mean, if you were sitting on that sort of technology, wouldn’t now be a good time to bring it to market?
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Psst, George...Don't Believe Maliki...It's Not An Iraqi Sign Of Affection
I'm heartened to hear that some Iraqi journalists immediately stood up to apologize.
At this point, I think W's about as eager to wrap this thing up as the Lefties I've seen sporting the bumper stickers with the 1-20-09 date on them...
Oh, This Is Definitely Nobel Worthy
A Shave And A Haircut...
Labor costs, McArdle argues, are not the issue at financial institutions – imbalanced balance sheets are. CEO and executive pay amounts to a smaller percentage of the banking and financial industry’s current woes than the auto industry, and reducing labor costs for automakers will bring them closer to parity with their foreign competitors.
Overall, her logic to a comparison that I believe is fundamentally flawed is fair, if a bit blunt. McArdle rightfully points out that many CEOs were forced to take a pay cut, and since their compensation is often tied to company performance many executives’ personal fortunes have already been severely impacted.
I say the comparison is fundamentally flawed for a number of reasons. For one, comparing line work to C-level management is the proverbial apples-to-oranges analogy – it makes for good class envy rhetoric but the relative value each brings to the company table isn’t comparable. CEO’s have invested a substantial amount of education, experience and human capital into their careers and the respective fortune of the company, and can take these resources and sell them on the open market (a finite market for CEOs I might add); the same doesn’t necessarily hold true for auto line workers. Additionally, there is also recourse for a company with unsound management – they can be fired, and many have.
But that is not to say that as a stockholder of a company like AIG, I wouldn’t be demanding the head of the CEO on a silver platter…
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Cutting The Ties Of Employer-Based Health Care
I think their ideas make sense, and should be considered as part of or as an alternative to any health care reform package taken up by Congress this year – what do you think?
Obama Team Mum On Blagopalooza
The eye of this storm is now centered over Obama and the president-elect’s transition team. Questions of “what did he know, and when did he know it” are rightly being asked of Obama and his men (not by every member of the MSM, mind you). And as I said in a post earlier this week, I take Obama at his word when he maintains that he had no idea of what Blagojevich was scheming, but that doesn’t mean Obama didn’t talk to him about the seat, and at least provide the governor with a few thoughts for replacement. That’s politics – to the victor go the spoils.
So why then, the denials of even speaking with the governor? Why not stop this thing dead in its tracks and say, “yes, we spoke briefly about the vacancy and I provided Gov. Blagojevich with my thoughts on who a suitable replacement might be; but ultimately, we agreed that it was the governor’s call” and be done with it?
Because it’s not done – as we slowly pull the curtain back on the Obama experience, I think we'll see a trail of used up bodies strewn about the path to the White House. Obama’s ambitious and meteoric rise to fame has been built largely on relationships of convenience with people of questionable character. From Wright to Rezko, to Ayers to Daly, Obama has been using people and horse trading on relationships for years, each designed to catapult him to the next stage of his political career - a notion all-too-conveniently under reported by the MSM in its fawning coverage of candidate Obama. And now that he’s arrived, President-elect Obama is quickly looking to distance himself from his poorer relations. But unfortunately for him, when you win the lottery, family has a nasty habit of coming out of the woodwork.
McCain was right – character matters. And as the Messiah veneer inevitably fades, the folks who voted for Obama will see they elected a real character all right...
Friday, December 12, 2008
$50 Billion Ponzi Scheme
Vermin like this guy make the case for a free market system that much tougher.
Happy Birthday Old Man!
Dad - as a fan of the Supreme Court, you'll be happy to know that on this date back in 2000, the court rendered its decision in Bush v. Gore, effectively ensuring George W. Bush's first presidential victory. The vote was......you guessed it.....5-4!
Many happy returns to you!
Obama Offers Umbrella For Iranian Storm
During his campaign, Obama's position on Tehran was all over the place. In the early stages of the primaries, Obama famously stumbled through a response to a question concerning relations with rogue nations – saying said that he would meet with leaders without preconditions. The response elicited howls from his rivals, including one Joe Biden. However, as the season wore on and Obama’s chances of election seemed likely, he took on a more somber stance toward the Iranian regime.
Obama’s campaign website outlined this approach to Iranian diplomacy:
Present the Iranian regime with a clear choice. If Iran abandons its nuclear program and support for terrorism, they would offer incentives like membership in the World Trade Organization. If Iran continues its troubling behavior, Obama and Biden will step up our economic pressure and political isolation.
This approach is kind of like a mall security guard attempting to pursue a fleeing shoplifter - “Stop! Or I’ll yell stop again!”
I’m not sure what exactly this latest policy statement is meant to convey – beyond what’s already known and has been said – other than signal to Ahmadinejad that the US is busy on other matters, and he will be taken at his word that his country is only using its nuclear capacity for peaceful means.
Israel isn’t buying it, and neither am I.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Separated At Birth? Part II...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Capitol Hill Reaches Accord On Detroit Bailout
Swell. Government further extends its reach into the market to help prop up an industry it in part helped to destroy through excessive regulation. Does this mean that auto workers now become de facto federal employees who could be terminated for work stoppages, similar to their air traffic counterparts in the early 1980’s?
Paglia On The Clintons And More...
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Land Of Lincoln...and Daly, Obama, Rezko
Blagojevich and his chief of staff, John Harris, were arrested Tuesday morning at their respective homes, charged with conspiracy to commit mail and wire fraud and solicitation of bribery in attempting to sell Barack Obama's vacant Sentate seat. Wow - taken into custody at their homes, that's telling isn’t it? Usually, disgraced soon-to-be-indicted political figures are afforded the dignity of turning themselves in to authorities. I wonder what prompted the feds to take down Blagojevich at home.
For his part, Obama claims that he had not been in contact with the governor about his senate vacancy. However, ABC News is reporting that the president-elect’s senior advisor David Axelrod told a reporter in November that, “I know he’s talked to the governor and that there are a whole range of names many of which have surfaced and I think he has a fondness for a lot of them.” Axelrod is now backpedaling from this statement saying that he misspoke about the meeting. That’s some misstatement.
The president-elect further added that he had no idea of what was happening with Blagojevich. That’s funny, that’s exactly the same excuse he had for Bill Ayers…and Tony Rezko…and Jeremiah Wright. Notice a trend here? And speaking of Rezko, his name appears over 170 times in the complaint! With Rezko singing like a canary, there's no telling what we'll uncover as we go along.
Even if Obama’s ignorance of the Blagojevich affair is legit, and I believe that it is - beginning a new administration under a cloud like this is not a good start.
Aw Hell, Why Don’t The Feds Just Buy Everyone A Home?
No Updates Tomorrow…
I'm reminded of the old Saturday Night Live sketch with Bill Murray chastising his son for his decision to stay home from school (for no particular reason other than he was bored), and pointing out the decision’s ultimate ramifications (industry shuts down, Russians at the door, total chaos, etc.).
Monday, December 8, 2008
The Accidental Terrorist
Great piece from National Review Online.
International journalists are unable to describe the Islamic attackers last month in Mumbai as "terrorists".
"Militants", "gunmen", and "practitioners" are the terms they use so not as to insult our Islamic friends.
What is also noted is how the official newsletter of the Democratic Party, The New York Times, wrote, "It is not known if the Jewish center was strategically chosen, or if it was an accidental (emphasis his) hostage scene."
How "lucky" could the terrorists have been? In a country of over 1.2 billion people, with a Jewish population between 5,000 and 10,000, they accidentally stumble upon the Chabad House; a non-descript building which served as the Jewish center of Mumbai.
Why is it again that we don't trust liberals with protecting us from terrorists?
Indeed.
Yep, It's Official: We're Screwed...
W is a class act...no doubt about it.
The Oil Dividend
As the economic picture worsens, lower energy prices fueled by oil may be one of the factors that help to cushion the fall for many tax payers. Diminished demand has translated into lower prices at the gas pump, acting as a natural tax cut for many Americans. The timing for this couldn’t have been better - lower oil prices will also mean that more Americans will be able to heat their homes as we head into the winter months.
In response, OPEC has signaled that it would most likely cut production of oil to stave off declining prices. OPEC group president Chakib Khelil told reporters last week that a "severe" cut may be needed to halt declining prices.
But Calculated Risk doesn’t see it that way. The economics and forecasting blog notes that oil prices are below Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) expenditures ($40 per barrel compared to $50 per barrel in government spending), making a talk of production cuts just what it is – talk. As an aside – there is some great material on this site, but be forewarned: if you’re looking for a Kudlowesque view of the economy you’d better look elsewhere.
Another effect of declining oil prices - it appears to lessen the demand for electric cars.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
The Jindal Effect?
In a year of devastating losses for republicans, these victories provide small consolation. But they may also be viewed as a positive sign for LA Governor Bobby Jindal, who may or may not be harboring national political aspirations in the near future.
Hey Zardari, Is Your Refrigerator Running?
Caller: Uh, yes…is Asif there? This is Pranab Mukherjee
Pakistan: Hold on, let me get him.
Caller: (giggle)..shh, shh, he’s coming to the phone!
Zardari: Hello?
Caller: Ah, yes, Asif, this is Pranab Makherjee, India’s Foreign Minister.
Zardari: Yes, yes, I know who you are, what do you want?
Caller: Well, we have captured another terrorist and he is saying that your office had direct participation in the Mumbai attacks!
Zardari: That’s impossible, what’s his name?
Caller: Bahb al Booie…
Zardari: Bahb al Booie? Bahb al Booie?
Caller: Yes, Bahb al Booie, and he was captured with Howard Stern’s Private Parts in his possession!
Zardari: @&*^$! (hangs up phone) Who the Hell is screening my calls?
Saturday, December 6, 2008
What A Tangled Web Charlie Weaves...
Rangel, Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, is already in hot water with the House Ethics Committee (har!) for possible tax improprieties, including charges that he improperly used a rent-subsidized New York apartment as his office; and that he failed to disclose rental income from a luxury villa in the Dominican Republic purchased in part with loans from a lobbyist. Rangel’s defense – he wasn’t aware of the implications of his activities, as his work on Ways and Means (you know, the body that writes the tax code) prevented him from understanding tax laws.
We have our own Untouchable here in Philly; and as is usually the case, karma will eventually catch up.
Stimulus Package Bleeding Green
Look, I realize it’s politically expedient for Obama to appear to be championing the Middle Class in its hour of need, but stimulus checks are the economic equivalent of feeding a man a fish versus teaching him how. And I even concede that this particular downturn may a different animal than in past recessions, requiring the government to step in to minimize job loss through spending on infrastructure improvement projects. For one thing, they are sorely needed; for another, I feel it will help to stave off a larger more ominous downturn in commercial construction that is right around the corner.
But let’s stick to what we know – government can’t create wealth, it can only foster its creation and subsequently spend it. So let’s stimulate the economy through smart tax policy while addressing infrastructure improvements and energy independence through practical investment on bridges and highways, clean coal plants, nuclear energy, and additional petroleum refining capabilities.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Friday Night Ramblings...
It’s Friday, and I have my trusty red by my side. Tonight, it’s a 2006 Clos de los Siete, a fine inexpensive dandy from Argentina, and it’s going down very smoothly. Perhaps too smoothly. So if any of the following is incoherent or offensive (more so than my sober dispatches), I apologize in advance – I really do love you - it was the booze talking.
- Well now, the Dow appears to have ended up sharply today. That’s it, the recession is over, there is nothing to see here…please return to your lives. Despite a US economy that shed over 533,000 jobs last month (the worst in 34 years) investors apparently had a lot to be happy about as the averages gained over 250 points…the upturn was fueled on speculation that the federal government had no choice but to pass a massive stimulus package…um, yeah...as to what that package might be is anyone’s guess…if Obama includes cuts on corporate and marginal tax rates designed to stimulate investment, then we’re on to something…if they amount to more government welfare, er, Middle-Class tax credits, then we’re in big trouble…strike that, bigger trouble
- In a series of confusing motions, OJ Simpson was sentenced to up to 33 years in prison earlier this afternoon. Simpson’s years of dogged detective work in searching for his wife’s killer on Florida’s golf courses and night clubs have come to an end. Karma’s a bitch OJ. Speaking of Karma, our favorite Karma Chameleon, Boy George, has also been found guilty in a court of law, but for offenses wholly different from OJ’s – he’s been found guilty of kidnapping, and chaining his male escort to a bed. Oh, if only poetic justice could be a factor in sentencing…
- Reports out of New York tonight that Caroline Kennedy has expressed interest in filling the senate seat of outgoing Senator Hillary Clinton, should Clinton be confirmed as Secretary of State. Kennedy’s previous political experience is that….wait for it…she’s a Kennedy, who also happened to back the right horse at the right time this past presidential season…
- And while we're on horses, whatever happened to John Kerry? I mean seriously, the guy gives Obama his big break in 2004, allowing the-then state senator from Illinois the spotlight in an otherwise standard issue Democrat snoozefest, and then was one of Obama’s most enthusiastic, early supporters…word was that he was a shoo-in for State, and then…crickets…psst, John, did you tell them you served in Vietnam?
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Big Oil Has Nothing on Big Education
In1982, the average cost of tuition at a public four-year institution was about $800, while the average cost of tuition at a four-year private institution for the same year was $4,639.
To put things into perspective, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in 1982 was $1.20. In December 2008, the average price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline is $1.81, down from its July 2008 high of $4.05/gallon (when’s the last time college tuition actually decreased?).
Now guess who is frog-marched in front of Congress to answer “To the People” for their predatory pricing practices?
I’ll give you a hint – it’s not the president of Harvard.
Can He Still Get The Deposit Back?
You have been warned. That is all.
American Ingenuity On Display
OK, maybe that’s not what the complaint actually says…its more like the companies profited by assigning high ratings to bonds backed by mortgages “that were designed to fail” because of “unfair payment terms and insufficient borrower income levels.”
Further, the National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) charges that Moody’s and Fitch “knew or should have known” the subprime mortgages were being disproportionately marketed to minority consumers. A 2006 study is reported to have shown that an estimated 45% of mortgages extended to Latinos and 55% of African-Americans were subprime – a rate reportedly three to four times higher than non-Hispanic whites.
But isn’t that the point? Isn’t this whole “ownership society” notion that everyone is entitled to own a home, regardless of financial status, part of the equation that led to this current financial mess? Groups like the NCRC (and Obama) were most likely at the forefront of battles with major lending institutions during the 1990’s pressuring them to open the aperture of lending to minorities, knowing full well many if not most of these folks wouldn’t qualify for conventional mortgages. And guess what…they were right!
The story doesn’t directly say on whose behalf the NCRC has filed the complaint; yet I have a feeling it is not the holders of the junk bonds, but rather the constituents comprising the “community” of the NCRC.
I don’t absolve Wall Street of its sins any more than I do the stupidity and shortsightedness of the holders of these subprime mortgages. They have both made their respective bed, but neither party appears accountable enough to lie in it.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
What A Drag It Is Getting Old...
While Washington falls all over itself doling out goodies in an effort to spend us out of short term financial meltdown, it appears to be paying scant attention to this 800 lb gorilla of the health care continuum waiting in the wings...
And you think you pay too much for health care now? You ain't seen nothin' yet...
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Er, About That "Team Of Rivals"...
And this foot-in-mouth disease does not appear to be contained to the lower echelons of the Executive Office. Commenting on then-candidate Hillary Clinton's foreign policy experience during last Spring's debate, candidate Obama remarked of his new Secretary of State, "What exactly is this foreign policy expertise? Was she negotiating treaties? Was she handling crises? The answer is no."
Adding to the lovefest, incoming Chief Counsel Greg Craig said this about Clinton last March: "There’s no evidence that she participated or asserted herself in any of the crises that took place during the eight years of the Clinton presidency. White House records show that she was consistently absent when critical decisions were being made and that her trips abroad were largely ceremonial."
And last, but certainly not least, Obama's choice for UN Ambassador Susan Rice weighs in on the new Secretary back during the primaries: "There is no crisis to be dealt with or managed when you are First Lady. You don't get that kind of experience by being married to a commander-in-chief.
That's quite a team Barack's assembled.
Remember kids, in Washington there is no "I" in "Team"- but there is "Eat Me".
Monday, December 1, 2008
Wheeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!
Congratulations, we’ve been living in the greatest depression since the Depression for almost a year now. I’m sorry, but I fail to see how the NBER’s conclusion somehow sent the markets into such a panic. US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson also said today that he’s working to expand the availability of TARP funds for foreclosure relief. First, he uses the $700B to buy toxic assets, then he doesn’t – then, he uses $350B to inject capital into failing financial institutions, and then walks away. Now, he wants to use billions to help homeowners. See any correlation here?
I’m more inclined to side with those who see a connection between the politicization of the markets and its current manic-depressive volatility.
Change I Can Certainly Believe In...
I know a certain blogger (rhymes with Conservative Yahoo) with a splash pad in the Crystal City area in a position to make quite a nice bit of cabbage...
On Coming Home...
But that’s the selling point for me. When I’m “home”, it’s as if time freezes, if just for a few days. Every beautiful processed food item I enjoyed as a child and currently verboten in the Goldwater household is on prominent display – the toughest decision I make during a typical day revolves around what I’ll have for breakfast – Cap’n Crunch, Cocoa Puffs or Apple Jacks. I don’t worry about deadlines, sales quotas or mortgages, they’ll still be there when I get back. And with me through all of this is Mrs. Goldwater, who indulges me on my little time travel adventures; who herself has managed to develop a good relationship with her in-laws, including my sister and sister-in-law, who live in the area as well.
Adding to the allure for me is the fact that my son and daughter are around the same ages as my sister’s two boys, and the four of them get along famously. It is a joy watching them develop a foundation upon which I hope will become a life-long friendship.
Yet visits these days are becoming all too bittersweet. With every trip, I see my parents age before my eyes. But although my mom and dad may have lost a step or two with time, their hospitality and generosity have never ebbed. Their pride in their children and love of their grandchildren provides them an almost boundless source of energy.
But it is through this lens that I also see they have more days behind them then ahead, forcing me to grudgingly acknowledge and accept my own aging (as if the gray hair at 20 wasn’t a giveaway), as well as that of my brothers and sister. My siblings and I are no longer children living under the same roof under the benevolent dictatorship of Mom and Dad - each of us has become a responsible adult, each with our own families, values, opinions and set of adult-like problems.
We arrived home last Saturday evening after spending eight hours in a minivan. No sooner was my eight year-old son in the front door did he burst into tears. This wasn’t the inconsolable outburst of an impudent child who didn’t get what he wanted, but rather the heartfelt sadness of a young man who is beginning to understand that life isn’t permanent, that nothing lasts forever and even life’s most mundane moments are ones to be savored.
I wish I could tell him it gets easier.