This has become the mantra for Bryan over at the Conservative Wahoo since Obama’s election last November. I can see no better application of his admonition than in the story featured in this morning’s New York Times concerning an advocacy group’s intention to file a federal suit challenging provisions of the Defense of Marriage Act, passed by Congress in 1996.
The group Gay and Lesbian Advocates and Defenders is seeking to force the federal government to extend federal benefits such as Social Security survivors’ payments, to spouses in same sex marriages in states where such unions are recognized by the state. The Defense of Marriage Act prohibits the federal government from recognizing same sex marriages, extending this prohibition to federal benefits.
This has less to do with extending such benefits, as the intended plaintiffs concede, and all to do with circumventing the will of the Legislative Branch. Because while Obama knows he doesn’t have the votes to specifically repeal this legislation, he does have the ability and the majority in Congress to appoint federal judges who may use their power of judicial review to “right” perceived social wrongs.
Elections matter.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
The Price Of Hope
Greg Mankiw reports on the results of a new CBO analysis of the short- and long-term impacts of the recently enacted stimulus bill, or American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA).
The conclusion of the CBO is, in short, that while ARRA may have a significant short term impact on GDP and employment using the more optimistic growth estimate, it will have little effect on the economy in the long-run:
On the employment side, the CBO estimates that the bill will create 1.2 to 3.3 million jobs by the end of 2010. However, this figure is expected to shrink to 0.3 to 0.7 million jobs by the end of 2012. Of this estimate, I wonder how many are due to the increase of the federal bureaucracy. Also, keep in mind that many of the administration's growth assumptions in its spending bill are based on the higher, more optimistic growth projections. It's good to see former Reagan employee Rosey Scenario now working for the Obama team.
Do you think this is a solid enough ROI on $787 billion? It is your money, after all...
The conclusion of the CBO is, in short, that while ARRA may have a significant short term impact on GDP and employment using the more optimistic growth estimate, it will have little effect on the economy in the long-run:
On the employment side, the CBO estimates that the bill will create 1.2 to 3.3 million jobs by the end of 2010. However, this figure is expected to shrink to 0.3 to 0.7 million jobs by the end of 2012. Of this estimate, I wonder how many are due to the increase of the federal bureaucracy. Also, keep in mind that many of the administration's growth assumptions in its spending bill are based on the higher, more optimistic growth projections. It's good to see former Reagan employee Rosey Scenario now working for the Obama team.
Do you think this is a solid enough ROI on $787 billion? It is your money, after all...
Monday, March 2, 2009
The Dow Limbo...
How low can it go? World markets dropped lower this morning on news that the US Treasury was set to offer an additional $30 billion in loans to AIG, as the insurer is expected to announce later this morning of the biggest quarterly loss in its history of $60 billion.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Dow closes at 6800 or so later this afternoon…
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Dow closes at 6800 or so later this afternoon…
Let The Spin Begin
News this morning about President Obama’s decision to sign the budget despite potentially breaking a campaign pledge about earmarks is fairly unremarkable – he’s broken quite a few already.
But what is remarkable about this story are the comments from Obama’s advisers, Peter Orszag and Rahm Emanuel, further down in the article. “This is last year’s business,” said Orszag. “We just want to move on. Let’s get this bill done, get it into law and move forward.”
Emanuel was a little more direct as to whose feet the administration will be laying this before – “First, this is a $1.7 trillion deficit he inherited. Let's be clear about that. We inherited this deficit and we inherited $4 trillion of new debt," Emanuel said. “That is the facts.”
These comments would appear to signal a concerted PR effort among Obama’s advisers to paint the staggering budget deficits as a legacy of the Bush Administration to counteract republican efforts to draw attention to potentially damaging long-term effects of the deficit on the economy. An interesting strategy if they can pull it off.
But just how exactly does one inherit $4 trillion of new debt?
But what is remarkable about this story are the comments from Obama’s advisers, Peter Orszag and Rahm Emanuel, further down in the article. “This is last year’s business,” said Orszag. “We just want to move on. Let’s get this bill done, get it into law and move forward.”
Emanuel was a little more direct as to whose feet the administration will be laying this before – “First, this is a $1.7 trillion deficit he inherited. Let's be clear about that. We inherited this deficit and we inherited $4 trillion of new debt," Emanuel said. “That is the facts.”
These comments would appear to signal a concerted PR effort among Obama’s advisers to paint the staggering budget deficits as a legacy of the Bush Administration to counteract republican efforts to draw attention to potentially damaging long-term effects of the deficit on the economy. An interesting strategy if they can pull it off.
But just how exactly does one inherit $4 trillion of new debt?
Analyze This
This story is appearing on every internet news outlet this morning, mostly for the headline appeal. Appearing on yesterday’s “Meet the Press”, Defense Secretary Robert Gates was asked by David Gregory to reflect on the differences between his current boss and his prior one.
“It’s hard to say,” Gates began. “I think President Obama is somewhat more analytical, and he makes sure he hears from everybody in the room on an issue, and if they don't speak up he calls on them.” This in contrast to President Bush, who didn’t go out of his way to elicit input, Gates added.
Obviously, this means President Obama is of superior intellect to George W. Bush, right? Not necessarily. All it means is that Obama’s management style may be more decision-by-consensus rather than a top-down approach, but that’s not what the headlines would lead one to conclude. In his memoir of his years as advisor to President Clinton, George Stephanopoulus wrote that Clinton’s “paralysis by analysis” was one of the more annoying traits of the former president. Stephanopoulos described several instances where President Clinton and his advisors would hole themselves up in the Oval Office for hours debating and crafting policy, only to have that policy directly contradicted the next morning after the president spoke with his wife prior to retiring for the night.
Management by consensus doesn’t mean you’re smarter, it just means you have more people to yell at if your decision goes awry.
“It’s hard to say,” Gates began. “I think President Obama is somewhat more analytical, and he makes sure he hears from everybody in the room on an issue, and if they don't speak up he calls on them.” This in contrast to President Bush, who didn’t go out of his way to elicit input, Gates added.
Obviously, this means President Obama is of superior intellect to George W. Bush, right? Not necessarily. All it means is that Obama’s management style may be more decision-by-consensus rather than a top-down approach, but that’s not what the headlines would lead one to conclude. In his memoir of his years as advisor to President Clinton, George Stephanopoulus wrote that Clinton’s “paralysis by analysis” was one of the more annoying traits of the former president. Stephanopoulos described several instances where President Clinton and his advisors would hole themselves up in the Oval Office for hours debating and crafting policy, only to have that policy directly contradicted the next morning after the president spoke with his wife prior to retiring for the night.
Management by consensus doesn’t mean you’re smarter, it just means you have more people to yell at if your decision goes awry.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Back Off Man, We're Actors
Thank goodness, Hollywood is on the case. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences confirmed on Friday that a team of Hollywood actors has been dispatched to Iran on a “completely private initiative for educational and creative exchange, and with no political agenda.”
No political agenda? The fact that these self-serving imbeciles are even there is a political enough agenda.
No political agenda? The fact that these self-serving imbeciles are even there is a political enough agenda.
A Parent Looks At 40
With apologies to Jimmy Buffett…
Some of you who read this blog with any frequency know that I was recently down in the Florida Keys for a little R&R. I’ve been to Florida several times as a child and adult, but don’t ever recall traveling down to the Keys. I was blown away by this area’s natural beauty. Florida in February sure beats Philadelphia in February, that’s for sure.
For part of the trip, I got to see how “old” money passes its time waiting for that Big Mahjong Game in the Sky. I stayed at a swanky, self-contained planned community known as the Ocean Reef Club. I didn’t see one car during my stay; didn’t need to – everyone traveled by golf cart. And not just any golf cart, mind you, but custom carts made to look like Benz’s, Bentley’s and Hummers. Everything you could ever want is pumped in for you – provided you have the means, of course.
Mrs. Goldwater then joined me later in the week for the second leg of the journey. I planned to pick her up in a shiny convertible on our way to cruise the streets of South Beach, her Ricardo Tubbs to my Sonny Crockett. However, in the eight minutes it took me to drive from the car rental place to the arrivals terminal at Miami International, my face and neck were visibly red with sunburn. After a liberal application of sun block (about as liberal as I get), we were finally off to the mean streets of South Beach. But in the twenty years since “Miami Vice” first aired, the means streets of South Beach have become more like the gay streets of South Beach. There was lots of shopping and restaurants, but not a lot of parking space. Oh well, at least the food was good.
The next day, we headed due South toward Key West. Key West is a beautiful town – similar in atmosphere and architecture to Charleston, SC. or even New Orleans. The lower part of Duval Street in Key West is like Bourbon Street without the vomit and urine smells – bar followed by tacky souvenir shop followed by bar. It must have been Spring Break, because every one of the bars was packed.
And I’ve got to admit, the sounds of laughter and fun emanating from these places called to me like a siren’s song. I wanted to slog up to Joe’s Place like Hemingway must have done years before me to embark on a bender to remember (or not). Mrs. Goldwater, on the other hand, wanted no part of it. “Honey,” she said in that sweet matronly tone I’ve heard her take a thousand times with the kids, “you’re 41 years old. We have to drive back to Key Largo in the dark. You pass out after two beers, and even when you were their age, you hated those places. Now, do you have to go pee before we take the guided tour?” And with that, I gathered the shards of my shattered ego and loaded them onto the tour bus with the other octogenarians. Sometimes that woman can be too honest.
Oh sure, overall the trip was great fun, but it could have been Hemingway fun…
Some of you who read this blog with any frequency know that I was recently down in the Florida Keys for a little R&R. I’ve been to Florida several times as a child and adult, but don’t ever recall traveling down to the Keys. I was blown away by this area’s natural beauty. Florida in February sure beats Philadelphia in February, that’s for sure.
For part of the trip, I got to see how “old” money passes its time waiting for that Big Mahjong Game in the Sky. I stayed at a swanky, self-contained planned community known as the Ocean Reef Club. I didn’t see one car during my stay; didn’t need to – everyone traveled by golf cart. And not just any golf cart, mind you, but custom carts made to look like Benz’s, Bentley’s and Hummers. Everything you could ever want is pumped in for you – provided you have the means, of course.
Mrs. Goldwater then joined me later in the week for the second leg of the journey. I planned to pick her up in a shiny convertible on our way to cruise the streets of South Beach, her Ricardo Tubbs to my Sonny Crockett. However, in the eight minutes it took me to drive from the car rental place to the arrivals terminal at Miami International, my face and neck were visibly red with sunburn. After a liberal application of sun block (about as liberal as I get), we were finally off to the mean streets of South Beach. But in the twenty years since “Miami Vice” first aired, the means streets of South Beach have become more like the gay streets of South Beach. There was lots of shopping and restaurants, but not a lot of parking space. Oh well, at least the food was good.
The next day, we headed due South toward Key West. Key West is a beautiful town – similar in atmosphere and architecture to Charleston, SC. or even New Orleans. The lower part of Duval Street in Key West is like Bourbon Street without the vomit and urine smells – bar followed by tacky souvenir shop followed by bar. It must have been Spring Break, because every one of the bars was packed.
And I’ve got to admit, the sounds of laughter and fun emanating from these places called to me like a siren’s song. I wanted to slog up to Joe’s Place like Hemingway must have done years before me to embark on a bender to remember (or not). Mrs. Goldwater, on the other hand, wanted no part of it. “Honey,” she said in that sweet matronly tone I’ve heard her take a thousand times with the kids, “you’re 41 years old. We have to drive back to Key Largo in the dark. You pass out after two beers, and even when you were their age, you hated those places. Now, do you have to go pee before we take the guided tour?” And with that, I gathered the shards of my shattered ego and loaded them onto the tour bus with the other octogenarians. Sometimes that woman can be too honest.
Oh sure, overall the trip was great fun, but it could have been Hemingway fun…
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