Baby Boom Or Bust?

First the good news – the United States isn’t on quite the same trajectory to demographic oblivion as its developed Western European counterparts. In 2007, a record 4.3 million babies were born, bringing the US birth rate to just over 2.1, a healthy replacement rate. Many Western European nations are languishing at about 1.8 or lower.

Now the bad news – almost 40% of these babies were born to unmarried women, including almost three of every ten non-Hispanic white babies, seven out of every ten African American babies and five of every ten Hispanic babies. Additionally, the birth rate for teenage girls rose five percent from 2005 to 2007, to 42.5 births per 1,000 for girls aged 15-19.

Normally news of a minor baby boom like this would be met with relief, especially as multi-trillion dollar budget deficits loom on the horizon, not to mention the implending twin tsunamis of social security and Medicare entitlements. Baby booms mean a larger tax base, as millions of able-bodied men and women enter the workforce to replace retiring (and dying) Baby Boomer and Gen-X’ers. But judging by the socioeconomic challenges already facing this new generation, this boom might very well turn out to be a bust.