Obama’s Third Bush Term

During the November campaign, Obama mockingly referred to the McCain/Palin ticket as the third Bush Term; meaning that should McCain be elected, Americans would be treated to another four years of Bush policies. But as we’ve seen during the transition in the selection of such Bush administration holdovers as Robert Gates, James Jones, and most recently intelligence veteran John Brennan, Obama’s lofty rhetoric of change may prove to be just that – at least as foreign policy is concerned anyway – and that isn’t such a bad thing.

Writing in the current issue of Foreign Policy magazine, former chief speechwriter and senior policy advisor to Condoleezza Rice, Christian Brose posits that if the Obama Administration is successful in foreign policy in the coming years, it won’t be because of wholesale changes to the policy Obama inherited from Bush, but largely because he’ll continue it.

Of the many issues that await Obama, including North Korea, Iraq and Iran, Brose believes that the new president will continue many of the policies already implemented in Bush’s second term. In North Korea, Obama will keep the course of multilateral negotiation, simply because there are no other options. President Obama’s campaign promise of a drawdown in Iraq will also benefit from Bush’s surge policy, as the Iraqis are at a point where self governance and the need for a large occupying force are no longer required. And in Iran, Obama is almost surely to maintain the Bush course of “sticks and carrot” diplomacy, but adding that the new president will require sharper sticks and sweeter carrots.

Over in the Middle East, Obama policy shouldn’t be too dissimilar from what it looks like today; from support of an independent Lebanon, application of pressure on Syria to behave themselves, to continued support of a Palestinian state. On the issue of a Palestinian state, Obama would be wise to continue the Bush pledge of US support only when the Palestinians prove their seriousness to self-determination by successful government and economy.

On Islamic terrorism, Obama is beginning to understand the enormity of the situation, as well as the complexity involved in taking the moral highroad in combating it. Closing Gitmo won’t be as easy as Obama feels it will be, as surely Bush could attest. And despite his rhetoric on torture to the contrary – “I was clear throughout this campaign and was clear throughout this transition that under my administration the United States does not torture…we will abide by the Geneva Conventions, we will uphold our highest ideals” – rendition was a policy initiated by the Clinton Administration and carried out under the auspices of his new CIA chief and former Clinton Chief of Staff Leon Panetta. And do you know why it was continued under Bush? Because it works.

As historians rush to put their assessment on the presidency of George W. Bush, they should, in fairness, reserve judgment until after the results are in of the Obama years.